Thoughts on the iPad
It’s not enough to make a gadget that is critically successful or popular with technology enthusiasts (or even Apple enthusiasts). Like the iPhone, part of the benefit is that the iPad will be a platform that can be extended. This creates a kind of externality. It has to be a commercial success for it to be maximally useful because a larger installed base will attract more developers to build apps for the device. Similarly, it will generate more incentive for people to innovate while designing media to be experienced with it (those future of magazine demos are not going to make themselves).
I don’t know how many users a device needs before the third-party software is truly great, but I know from personal experience that OS X didn’t have too much great software in 2001 but it did by 2005. The iPhone had great software in the immediate weeks that the App Store opened its doors. I think this has more than a little to do with the expectations of developers with an eye toward the number of potential customers.
The casual users subsidize the overall computing experience for the enthusiasts and power users. Not only do they encourage software development, but as a product becomes popular the input prices are going to be driven lower allowing for a manufacturer to maintain profits while lowering the price of a product. I think those are reasons enough that we shouldn’t ridicule a device that might attract “our parents.”
The individual returns to a product success, such as the iPad, explain at least to some extent my (and perhaps other’s) so-called fanboyism. Last decade, I saw successful AAPL stock performances as a sign that it was safe to buy Apple products. I root for Apple’s products to succeed not because it vindicates my choices, but because it demonstrates the stability and the likely longevity of the technological platform I have hitched my research, teaching, and hobbies to. Switching to a different OS or really switching away from the entire technological constellation that is provided to me by Apple would require large transaction costs. While most of my files would be quite portable (LaTeX, PDF, C++, Stata, jpg, etc.), the overall burden seems like it would be quite large. And so, I remain quite thankful that there’s been precious little reason to think about switching and every reason to look at the iPad as another step in the right direction.
